Growth trend in vegetable production- A time series analysis

Abstract: Vegetables are higher in productivity, short duration, and provide a valuable source of income leading to improved livelihood. This study analyzes the growth trends over the years in vegetable area, production and productivity across different states and forecast the future values with the existing growth pattern of vegetables in India.Vegetable area, production and productivity have grown at the rate of 2.17, 4.29 and 2.07 %, respectively from 1961-62 to 2017-18. Further, vegetable production in future is going to increase by 1.75 folds from 197.17Mt by 2020, 242.99Mt by 2030, 284.7 Mt by 2040 and 322.64 Mt by 2050. There would be a surplus production of vegetables ranging from 75 to 133 million tons during 2030-2050 if the same scenario of growth prevails. Highest significant growth rate in vegetable production was seen in the states like Nagaland followed by MPand Tripura. Crops like bottle gourd, brinjal, capsicum, carrot, green chilli, onion, peas, potato, sweet potato, tapioca, musk melon and water melon have more than 50% of their production coming from their 3 highest producing states. These states have to be recognized as hub for the respective crops and encouraged for direct export of surplus after meeting the demand from other consuming states. Processing and market infrastructure should be encouraged in these states for effective utilization and to minimize the wastage of surplus production.