Impact of climate change on water use, growth and production of tomato crop in Bahrain: A simulation case study

Abstract: This work aimed to study the response of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) crop to different climate change scenarios using the Aquacrop simulation model. Aquacrop calibration was performed using data from a tomato crop transplanted on October 1, 2015 in the Kingdom of Bahrain’s north. Crop yield production during the period from 2006 to 2015 was used for model testing using recorded climate data for the same period. Generated climate data for the periods of 2020-2030 and 2040-2050 using three climate models; namely, CNRS- CM, EC-Earth and GFDL with two climate scenarios RCP 4-5 and RCP 8-5 were used as inputs for Aquacrop for the specified periods compared with the reference period of 1986-2005. Aquacrop calibration showed good fitting with actual data (R²= 0.93; RMSE= 0.6 t. ha^-1; NRMSE= 0.2 and d = 0.97) as well as with testing period for the yield of 2006-2015 (R²= 0.85; RMSE= 0.33 t ha^-1; NRMSE= 0.093 and d = 0.936). All climate simulation models predicted an increase in both minimum and maximum air temperatures and CO₂ concentration. Aquacrop simulated the response of tomato plants as an increase in total biomass and yield production compared to the reference period. The crop water requirement was reduced due to a shorter crop cycle, which was predicted to be 12-17 days shorter depending on the climate scenario and simulated period.